The conflict between Russia and Ukraine, known as the Russo-Ukrainian War, commenced in February 2014 and continues to this day. After the Revolution of Dignity in Ukraine, Crimea was occupied and annexed by Russia, while pro-Russian separatists were backed in the Donbas war against the Ukrainian military. The initial eight years of conflict involved naval clashes, cyberwarfare, and increased political hostilities. By February 2022, Russia initiated a large-scale invasion of Ukraine, expanding its occupation further into the country.
History:Â
Takeover of Crimea:
In late February 2014, Russia began its occupation of Crimea, starting the Russo-Ukrainian War. Russian troops and special forces were deployed near the Crimean border after Yanukovych was removed from power. On February 27, Russian forces, disguised without insignia, took control of Crimea, claiming to be local “self-defense” units. They seized government buildings, established checkpoints, and isolated Crimea from Ukraine. Russian cyberattacks disrupted communication and granted access to Ukrainian officials’ phones. The Russian parliament approved armed forces deployment in Crimea on March 1. Russian special forces replaced the Crimean government with a pro-Russian one and held a referendum under occupation, resulting in Crimea joining Russia on March 18. Ukrainian military bases were seized, personnel captured, and all Ukrainian forces withdrew by March 30.
On April 15th, Ukraine recognized Crimea as temporarily occupied by Russia. Russia then militarized the peninsula and made nuclear threats. President Putin formed a Russian military task force in Crimea. In November, NATO expressed concerns about Russia deploying nuclear-capable weapons there. As a result, some NATO members began providing training support to the Ukrainian army after Crimea’s annexation.
Pro-Russian Disruption:
Starting in late February 2014, protests erupted in eastern and southern Ukraine, led by pro-Russian and anti-government groups. Initially driven by local discontent, Russia expressed support for the demonstrations. However, Russia later took advantage of the situation and launched a coordinated political and military campaign against Ukraine. Russian President Putin legitimized the separatists by referring to the Donbas region as part of “New Russia” and questioning its inclusion in Ukraine. In late March, Russia amassed forces near Ukraine’s eastern border, reaching a troop count of 30-40,000 by April. This deployment aimed to intimidate and disrupt Ukraine’s response, diverting their forces from the conflict zone.
In early March, Ukrainian authorities cracked down on the pro-Russian protests, arresting separatist leaders who were replaced by individuals with ties to Russian security services and interests. Russian citizens then took control of the separatist movement, receiving support and supplies from Russia, including fighters from Chechnya and Cossack groups. Without this support, the movement would likely have dissipated. In May, the separatist groups held disputed referendums not recognized by Ukraine or any other UN member state.
Invasion of Ukraine:
Gradually, the Russian invasion of Ukraine began on February 24, 2022, after Putin announced a military operation to “demilitarise and denazify” the country. Missiles and airstrikes hit various locations, including Kyiv, as a ground invasion unfolded. Zelenskyy declared martial law and mobilised male citizens aged 18-60. Russian forces faced resistance around Kyiv and halted progress in March, retreating by April. General Dvornikov took command in southern and eastern Ukraine in April, leading to a new offensive in April. By May, Ukrainian forces pushed back near Kharkiv, while Mariupol fell to Russian troops. The conflict caused a major refugee crisis, with over 7.4 million fleeing Ukraine by September 24.
In August, Ukrainian forces launched counteroffensives in the south and northeast, leading to the recapture of Kharkiv Oblast and Kherson. On September 30th, Russia annexed four Ukrainian oblasts, sparking global condemnation. Putin’s announcement of conscription resulted in a surge in demand for one-way tickets out of the country. The invasion was met with global condemnation, with the UN demanding Russian withdrawal and the ICJ ordering a halt to military operations. Russia faced expulsion from the Council of Europe and sanctions, causing economic repercussions. Putin’s law imposing prison sentences for resisting conscription prompted an international effort to grant asylum to Russians evading conscription.
By August 2023, around 500,000 Russian and Ukrainian soldiers were casualties of the invasion, with over 10,000 civilians also losing their lives. A US intelligence report from December 2023 revealed that Russia had suffered significant losses, with 315,000 troops killed or wounded and 2,200 tanks destroyed. From December 2023 to May 2024, Russia increased drone and missile attacks, while Ukrainian forces struggled with ammunition shortages, especially the Patriot systems.
Consequences:Â
The conflict in Ukraine has had widespread effects in various areas.
Economically, the war has devastated Ukraine, resulting in loss of human capital, damage to production capacity, and reduced private consumption. It has also impacted food and energy security in multiple countries, potentially decreasing Africa’s GDP by $7 billion annually.
On a humanitarian level, the war has displaced over 11 million people and forced more than 14 million individuals to flee their homes, causing family separations, homelessness for children, and community destruction. The human toll of the conflict is significant and ongoing.
Politically, the war has spurred Ukraine’s efforts to join Western alliances like the EU and NATO, while also strengthening Ukrainian national identity in the face of threats of annihilation and genocide. The conflict has fueled a determination to protect Ukraine’s sovereignty and forge closer ties with Western powers.
Environmentally, it has caused pollution in air, water, land, and soil, damaging ecosystems, agricultural land, and biodiversity. It has also increased greenhouse gas emissions. Hence, leading to further environmental degradation, with estimated damages exceeding $56.4 billion as of January 2024.
Reaction of UNÂ to Russo-Ukrainian war:Â
On February 25, 2022, the Security Council failed to pass a resolution condemning Russia’s aggression towards Ukraine due to a Russian veto. The General Assembly then convened for an emergency special session on March 2, 2022, and overwhelmingly voted to denounce Russia’s aggression with 141 in favor, 5 against, and 35 abstentions. The resolution demanded an immediate cessation of force and complete withdrawal of Russian military forces from Ukraine. On March 4, 2022, the UN Human Rights Council passed a resolution urging the withdrawal of Russian troops and establishing a commission to investigate human rights violations. In October 2022, the General Assembly adopted a resolution condemning the annexation referendums in Russian-occupied Ukraine with 143 supporting votes, 5 opposing votes, and 35 abstentions.
